INTRODUCTION

 

            This report presents population and civilian labor force projections for the 21 counties in the state of New Jersey from 2010 to 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.  The projections were developed by the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research as part of the Department's economic and demographic projections series.  Projections include employment by industry; employment by occupation; population by age-race-sex and Hispanic origin; and civilian labor force by age-race-sex and Hispanic origin.  These projections share input data and assumptions and are therefore consistent with each other.  These data supersede all projections previously issued by this Department.

 

            This report includes the county-level projections based on the Economic-Demographic projection model.

 

            These projections supersede demographic projections previously prepared by this Department.  The race and Hispanic origin groups included in the projections are white non-Hispanic, white Hispanic, black (or African American), “other races”, multiracial (two or more races) and total Hispanic. The “other races” include Asian, American Indian and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander.  Hispanic origin is not a race.  Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. The race distribution of the estimated/projected population is different from that of the census counts because they were modified to be consistent with the 1997 Standards for Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity and other data sources.  Persons of “Some other races” were redistributed to specified race categories in the modification.

 

The numbers in this report are projections, not forecasts or predictions.  A projection is the measurement of a future condition that would exist if the assumptions and procedures of the method proved to be empirically valid in the future.  Projections may assume continuation of past conditions, present conditions or trended changes in historical conditions.  They may also assume entirely new transition rates.  Given the method and the assumptions, a projection is always correct if the operations of the projection method are carried out without error.  The number of possible projections for any given population is therefore infinite.  A forecast, on the other hand, is a projection that is also a judgmental statement concerning the expected measurement of future conditions; it is a prediction.  All forecasts are projections, but not all projections are forecasts.  Again, numbers in this report are projections, not forecasts.[1]

 

Furthermore, the projections presented in this report are not designated “official” nor “policy” projections and should not be interpreted as goal or policy oriented.  They are not intended to constrain or to advocate specific levels of growth in the state.  All series are presented as baseline, that is, independent of exogenous public or private interventionist activities of an unusual, unforeseen, or undocumented nature or magnitude.  They are based primarily on identifiable demographic and economic secular trends which have been implicitly or explicitly incorporated into the models.  The greatest value of the projections is as a reference framework for planning, research, program evaluation and considerations for alternative growth scenarios which could be achieved through greater or less resource development.

 

 

Presentation of Results

 

This report provides summary tables for all counties including total population (Table 1) and civilian labor force (Table 8), as well as some details by age (Tables 2 and 9), sex (Tables 3 and 10), age and sex (Tables 4 and 11), race and Hispanic origin (Tables 5 and 12) and race-sex-origin (Tables 6 and 13) for population and labor force based on the Economic-Demographic Model.  The detailed projections of population and civilian labor force by age, race, sex and Hispanic origin are given in Tables 7 and 14, respectively.  Data by the same racial groups were tabulated for both population and labor force. However, labor force is divided into 6 age groups while population consists of 18 age groups.  Because of rounding, there may be small discrepancies between projection distributions and totals.

 

            No hardcopy of this publication is prepared. The county projections data are only available online at the Office of Labor Planning and Analysis’ Labor Fast Facts web site (http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/dmograph/lfproj/lfproj_index.html).

 

 

Caution on Interpretation

 

            As noted at the outset, projections are not forecasts. In addition, they are not designated “official”, nor “policy” projections.  The employment projections for the state are available for the year 2020 only.  Particular caution is advised in interpreting results for 2015, 2025 and 2030. Although they were consistent with the interpolated and extrapolated employment projections for the corresponding years, no actual employment projections were developed for these years. Users of any long-term projections should also be advised that the plausibility of historically based assumptions declines with increasing departure from the base year.  Projections are by their nature biased in favor of continuity.  There is generally little basis for projecting substantial departures from past trends, so few such departures are projected.  Yet, there is little doubt that unforeseen changes will occur.  Dramatic changes or disruptions of the current and/or recent economic-demographic conditions in the future such as major natural disasters, wars or a major overhaul of the nation’s immigration policies, etc. may invalidate the projections.

 

The Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research hopes the users of these projections will comment on them.  Please direct all comments, suggestions and data requests to New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research, P O Box 388, Trenton, New Jersey 08625‑0388; phone: 609-292‑0076; e-mail: sywu@dol.state.nj.us.

 

 


List of Tables

 

Table 1. Projections of Total Population by County: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 2. Projections of County Population by Age: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 3. Projections of County Population by Sex: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 4. Projections of County Population by Age and Sex: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 5. Projections of County Population by Race and Hispanic Origin:

  New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 6. Projections of County Population by Race, Sex and Hispanic Origin:

  New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 7. Projections of County Population by Age, Race, Sex and Hispanic Origin

              New Jersey: 2010 to 2030

 

Table 8. Projections of Civilian Labor Force by County: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 9. Projections of County Labor Force by Age: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 10. Projections of County Labor Force by Sex: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 11. Projections of County Labor Force by Age and Sex: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 12. Projections of County Labor Force by Race and Hispanic Origin:

    New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 13. Projections of County Labor Force by Race, Sex and Hispanic Origin:

    New Jersey, 2010 to 2030

 

Table 14. Projections of County Labor Force by Age, Race, Sex and Hispanic Origin

                New Jersey: 2010 to 2030

 



     [1] Donald B. Pittenger, Projecting State and Local Populations (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1976) and Richard E. Klosterman, Community Analysis Planning Techniques (Savage, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1990).