As the official source for all New Jersey population and demographic data, the Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research of the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development has analyzed the facts surrounding the state’s most recent population shifts. The state population estimates, IRS migration flow data, 2000 Census data and the American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata were used in conducting this analysis. The population statistics indicate that New Jersey had a net loss of population due to migration. While the reasons behind this trend cannot be determined using these data, a few facts regarding the demographic characteristics of people migrating into and out of New Jersey need to be highlighted.
Our analysis of the data reveals the following:

Population Trends

New Jersey's total population reached 8,682,661 as of July 1, 2008, a gain of 29,535 residents (or 0.34%) from 2007.  The state’s 0.34 percent growth rate between 2007 and 2008 was slower than 39 other states in the nation.  Nationally, total population increased by 0.92 percent between 2007 and 2008.

New Jersey’s total population has increased by 3.2 percent (or 0.38% per annum) so far in this decade.  Paralleling a national trend, the state’s post-2000 Census growth rate was slower than its rate of population growth during the 1990s (0.85% per annum).  The nation's total population increased by 13.2 percent (1.24% per annum) during the 1990s and 8.0 percent from 2000 to 2008 (0.94% per annum).
The rate of population growth in New Jersey had decelerated from 0.7 percent between 2000 and 2001 to 0.1 percent between 2005 and 2006. Since 2006, the state has gained population at an increasing rate.  The decelerating growth rate results from the state’s estimated diminishing natural increases combined with net losses in domestic migration.  Although New Jersey was still a magnet for foreign immigrants, after 2003, the net gains in international migration were no longer large enough to offset the net losses due to domestic migration.

As a major destination of foreign immigrants, the net gain from international migration (+384,687) was the largest source of population growth in New Jersey during the first eight years of this decade.  The natural increment (surplus of births over deaths) was another major source (+343,965) of the state’s population growth between 2000 and 2008. However, New Jersey experienced a net loss of 438,617 residents due to domestic migration during the same time period.  In comparison, New York gained 876,969 residents from international immigration but lost 1,575,864 people in domestic migration between 2000 and 2008, while Pennsylvania added 133,564 residents from abroad but shed 56,181 persons to other states.

Out-Migrants, In-migrants and International Immigrants

The 2007 ACS data indicates that median earnings of out-migrants ($18,129) were substantially lower than that of in-migrants to NJ ($30,808).
The large proportion (46.7%) of younger out-migrants (under 25 years of age) implied that attending schools outside of the state was a major reason for their out-migration. The high percentage (43.5%) of younger workers (25-44 years old) among in-migrants suggested that the Garden State is a top choice to start a career and family.
The higher proportion of the “less than high-school educated” and lower proportion of the “college graduates” among NJ’s 25 years and older out-migrants suggested that many out-migrants are less educated than their in-migrants counterparts.
The higher proportion of the “not in labor force” persons and “unemployed” workers 16 years and older among NJ’s out-migrants suggested that out-migration has not eroded the state’s superior workforce.
The out-migrants’ median personal income ($17,698) was 35% lower than that of the in-migrants ($27,240). It is therefore implied that lower-income persons are more likely to move out of New Jersey than their higher-income counterparts.
As of 2007, the state’s foreign immigrants had higher proportion of college graduates (35.6%, including 14.7% with postgraduate degree) than their native counterparts (33%, including 12% with postgraduate degree).  Approximately 37% of the state’s scientists and engineers, 37% of college teachers, 29% of medical/healthcare practitioners, and 33% of healthcare support workers were foreign immigrants.

New Jersey, Its Neighbors and Other States

The population growth in New Jersey's Middle Atlantic neighbors — New York (0.31%) and Pennsylvania (0.23%) — ranked 42nd and 46th nationally from 2007 to 2008, was somewhat slower than New Jersey (0.34%). 
New Jersey is not unique when it comes to population shifts to warmer climates. All Northeastern and Midwestern states lost population to Southern and Western states since the rise of the Sun Belt in the 1970s.  In fact, population growth in New Jersey was as low as 2.7% during the entire decade of 1970-1980, a sharp drop from its previous decade’s (1960-1970) growth rate of 18.2%.  However, New Jersey was able to regain a 5.0% and 8.9% population growth rate in the more recent two decades (1980-1990 and 1990-2000, respectively) due to the abundance of economic opportunities and influx of international immigrants.

According to federal income tax data, New York and Pennsylvania exchanged substantial number of population with New Jersey between 2000 and 2007 due to geographic proximity.  During the 7-year period, about 226,385 and 220,802 persons moved from NJ to NY and PA, while 397,191 and 167,081 persons moved from NY and PA to NJ, respectively.  Florida is another major destination of NJ migrants – about 221,367 New Jerseyans (many of them retirees) migrated to the Sunshine State between 2000 and 2007.
Historically, high-paying jobs in New York City (especially those in the financial sector) have attracted commuters from neighboring states. According to 2000 Census, some 335,000 New Jersey residents commuted to New York State for work but still preferred to live in New Jersey. They accounted for about 8.7% of NJ’s employed workers. That number has increased somewhat to 379,800 (or 9.2% of NJ workers) in 2007.
Although its 3.2% population growth so far in this decade (2000-2008) was lower than national average (8.0%), New Jersey was the third fastest growing state in the Northeast region, surpassed only by New Hampshire and Maine, which had grown by 6.5% and 3.3%, respectively, from much smaller population bases.